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About operation Epstein Fury. And the leadup to that.
In the Middle East, conflict and instability will shape security, political and economic dynamics in a variety of ways. The US led Operation Epic Fury is advancing fundamental change in the region that began with Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and continued with the 12-Day War last year, resulting in weakening Iran and its proxies.

The regime in Iran appears to be intact but largely degraded by Operation Epic Fury. Its regional power projection capabilities have been destroyed, leaving limited options. Prior to the current operations, Iran’s strategic position had been significantly degraded. The US led maximum pressure campaign and snapback of European sanctions added additional pressure to an already bleak Iranian economy, resulting in mass protests earlier this year that Tehran suppressed by killing thousands of protesters. Even if the regime remains intact, internal tensions are likely to increase as Iran’s economy worsens.

While it's already put forward by some that the Oct. 7th attack was an orchestrated 9/11 type of event happened in a place which is the most surveilled region of the world when we look back 10 years from now will we see it as the opening event of a series of orchestrated steps to collapse the Iranian regime? Or going further, to inflate Israel as regional hegemon?
Iran targeted Diego Garcia Base
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026/card/iran-targeted-diego-garcia-base-with-ballistic-missiles-rb7MdZW1CfwRTauDYHOt
> ~4000kms
> Europe is within reach
Article by James Ker-Lindsay:
https://www.e-ir.info/2026/03/22/iran-at-war-deterrence-national-identity-and-existential-stakes/
Found this very interesting:
This move has major domestic consequences. The more war is presented as existential, the easier it becomes to justify centralization, exceptionalism, and securitization. War turns into a matrix of legitimacy. The leadership can present itself not simply as the holder of political authority, but as the final barrier against encirclement, chaos, and national fragmentation. In that sense, the existential framing of war is not merely descriptive. It is productive. It creates the political conditions under which compromise becomes suspect and coercive resilience becomes virtue.
Lately come up this idea that Trump will claim that they essentially changed the regime because the people got changed. He can very well claim it for his mission accomplished, and people can only roll with it for nor Trump neither the further events will care about definitions.
But just to make it clear to ourselves.
Regime is not equal to leadership. The regime is not the people.
Regime is the political and socio-economic system of a state. The people running this system can and do change - die of old age or for example in countries with democratic procedures other people get elected into the positions of power and offices. In the UK with the hereditary head of state position and elected governments the faces changed hundred times over while the regime stands solid.
Worth to note.
As far as US policy tools go, they readily escalate within one tool - such as committed ground troops they can expand it from a dirty dozen to 2 million or so, but they don't really escalate from one policy tool to another.
So bombing is one policy tool, an invasion is another.
But we'll see.
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https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/03/17/zelenskyy-offers-1000-drone-interceptors-a-day-to-gulf-states/
> Ukraine is capable of producing about 2,000 interceptor drones per day 
> One of its leading weapons is the Sting interceptor, at $2,100
> By comparison, the Patriot PAC-3 interceptor is about $3.5 million.
> Built with a 3D-printed, bullet-shaped quadcopter projectile, the Sting achieves speeds of 340kph with the ability to cruise at 3,000 metres. It uses thermal imaging to pick up Shahed drones, diving down on them with its 1.8kg warhead at ranges up to 25km.
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Trump tweeted some threats yesterday. Then later uploaded this video. What did he mean by that? I don't see any info what that video is about. Perhaps others on twitter have.

I do think the Washington will commit ground troops. What will they achieve? Not much. They show they can?
Hearing everywhere they'll be sitting ducks for Iranian drones on both possible islands.
Historylegends put forward an idea where the US troops could land, in Baluchistan, there is the Chabahar bay, and open land around. There are some  ports there and an international airport.
Among other minorities Baluchs was one who could rise up and create problems for the Iranian govt. While they are the smallest minority in number (~2 million) their territory where they are the majority is large, and they already have a low level armed insurgency ongoing.
As I see it it is a place where the US can build up a large force and launch an offensive against the Iranian govt. Alex of Hlegends said the US could avoid using large amount of troops. I don't think Washington (and Tel-Aviv) cares.
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President Masoud Pezeshkian's letter to the American public
I found it here, it's a Paki news outlet:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1987606

Reasonable. Frankly more sane and especially more consistent messaging on behalf or the Iranian govt than what Washington does.
Two things can be put against it: oppressive regime, supporting the HHH. Cry me a river. Plenty of such things on the side of the US - she never had any problems supporting oppressive regimes, such as the Shah's after they couped Mossaddegh, and literally financed the creation of Al Qaeda and ISIS, together with Saudi Arabia, another oppressive Islamist regime.
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 >>/55298/
I'm reading he extended the ceasefire.
Either seeking an off ramp, or need more time to group forces into the region.
Some belligerent rhetoric too, check video. I assume he wants to keep ambiguity and options open. And later claim he was playing 6d chess instead of being a total dumbfuck.
Listening Hegseth acknowledging their piracy while accusing Iran with piracy. He puffed out some buzzwords.
Now the general talks about the 4 week special operation. I'm gonna stop listening I have shit to do.
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I think this gunman stunt was used as a distraction from the lull in the Iranian events. I expect more "loud" events when Trump will be busy tweeting on Truth Social and give speeches on telly and whatnot, looking busy and important.
This Iranian situation froze. Not much military action, they blockade, no talks. I believe two things can happen:
1. they move on, quietly focusing the attention to other issues
2. they actually preparing for invasion and they need distractions for the public.

I want to point to this book  >>/54223/ again.
While I like to talk about the client empire part, their main point (as I noted at couple of places) that the US foreign policy works the way it works because they use policy tools as compact packages they can reach up and take from the shelves.
They have diplomatic actions, economic, overt and covert military tools. They pick one they apply it, then finish up either with a success or a failure then reach to another tool.
So on this basis how I see it they used the bombing policy from the hostile intervention toolset. It failed. It is completed. Now they are blockading which is just a form of routinely hostile activities (Isolation/Containment) they default on against an enemy state.
From here they can pick another policy tool. They could just go on with the Containment. They perhaps tried the Persuasion option, but the Trump admin's diplomatic finesses is nil, so can't really tell if they really did this or not, they could use it, but Obama did that and they hate Obama. They could do bombing again which proved to be futile, even resulted in a setback since Iran took over the control of Hormuz, and pounded the Gulf States. They could pick the Invasion option (hostile overt military intervention), or any other but the others aren't really feasible (such as financing guerillas in Baluchistan, or using punctuated military operations with the Kurds).

What they aren't doing is escalation. They escalate within one tool (eg ramp up the volume of bombing or the number of committed troops during an invasion, etc.), but not escalating from one tool to another. They use a tool then stop then pick another from the shelf and apply it.

What I can tell that the Trump admin. consisting of a bunch of retards who think they know better than their predecessors. Turns out they never learnt anything.
The FLA and JNIM launched a joint offensive in Mali.

It's unclear what is happening. The Malians/Russians were held there positions in Bakama but then in Kidal there seems to have been an agreement reached whereby Malian forces were escorted out ands still able to keep their weapons.

Apparently the militants have taken large parts of Gao too.
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 >>/55323/
Yeah seems like someone bought the tuaregs to stir trouble plus started to back al-Qaeda/Islamic State (perhaps moved men and arms there to buff them up).
Attacks are happening all over the country. In the capital Bamako and the near seat of the junta in Kati, where they killed the Defense Minister Studio Camera in his fortified(?) home. Plus in the other large cities, Sevare and Gao. In Kidal the Russian mercs/advisers/instructors had to bargain for safe leave, it seems they had to leave behind their weapons.
The junta says they are in control of the situation, but seems doubtful. Reports says they are using drones to monitor around capital. I have no doubt the rebels have those too.

I think the attacks in large western towns were also distractions to help the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) to take over Kidal. Timbouktu didn't see such action because that's tuareg central (Azawad Liberation Front/ALF/FLA) and is quasi-independent from the Malian govt.
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Zelensky says drone manufacturing will enjoy priority in the budget now that they get the €90 billion from the EU.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/04/26/ukraine-to-prioritise-drones-and-energy-security-in-90b-eu-funding-zelenskyy/

I'm fairly sure it's not just for Ukraine, but they got contracts from the Gulf States to help them rearm their air defence.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2r4wxdw3no
https://www.voiceofemirates.com/en/news/2026/04/24/zelensky-announces-drone-agreement-with-gulf-states-to-counter-iranian-uavs/

So how I see it, Ukraine has a product - or rather privately owned companies have a product but no production capacity, so the Ukrainian state will use the money that the EU takes as a loan and gives to Ukraine and build the factories for these companies to sell weapons to the Arabs and the Ukrainian state. The owners of said companies and shareholders surely will earn well.
This could take some time however. Plus surely Russians will target these factories unless they are built outside Ukraine. I guess there are some places to build them.
 >>/55329/
Related: rearming the Gulf States could take years. So second round of strikes might wait this much. The US can't allow the Gulf getting wrecked like this, has to arm her clients. Against Iran. Not Israel, Israel should be able to strike them any time without any blowback.
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 >>/55325/
 >>/55326/
Alex of HistoryLegends telling the long story, adds many details.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=D8jerBxtDAA
https://youtube.com/watch?v=D8jerBxtDAA

It would be nice to know what the govt and the "Africa Corps" has on their hands.
The important things are the large population centers and the gold mines. Not much else. And the populated part is along the Niger.
I gather from ChatGPT... that gold production is in the hands of Canadian, Australian, South African and Chinese companies. Just opening up Barrick Mining's "executives" page https://www.barrick.com/English/about/executive-team/default.aspx tells me the Chinese influence might be more than we think.
In any ways noone will harm any of these companies, it's basically a rivalry who gets to make deals with them. Or not. Perhaps it's all largely detached from the country. Luttwak's Coup d'État has some stuff to say about countries with strong foreign company influence, not sure how much that is relevant in this scenario (beyond the issue that this is not a coup but a rebellion).
I was doing some research on Mali and it's quite interesting.

To start off with Mali can be split into roughly three regions, the south, which is where the Government's power comes from and it gets enough rainfall to support agriculture, The governments power base comes from the Bambara people who live in that area.

Then there is the north, which is very arid and can't support agriculture, it's populated by Berber(Tuareg) Nomads, There are numerous confederations of Tuaregs but the most powerful is the Kel Adagh. These confederations are made of 'Noble tribes' and 'peasant tribes' but within the noble tribes there is also a heirachy. In the Kel Adagh it is the Kel Afella who are the top dogs, all Kel Adagh leaders come from this group.

The FLA operate in the north and are dominated by the Kel Adagh and the Kel Afella and are the conservatives of the North, they want to preserve the status quo.
The JNIM is a Jihadist group that operate in the north as well as the centre. The Centre of Mali is a transition zone between the agricultural subsaharan south and the the dry Tuareg North. It's dominated by the Songhai people but they don't seem to have much political power in Mali.
The JNIM are led by another member of the Kel Adagh but from a lesser noble tribe, therefore he can't actually take over the Kel Adagh as he is not from the Kel Afella. This is why he is the head of JNIM instead. JNIM are sort of the anti-status Quo force in the north, they want to abolish or re arrange the power structure there, so they are not really an ally of the FLA.

Anyway, the Malians do no like the North operating outside their control and want to subjected it, the French came in and rescued the government from a Jihadi offensive but the French where there for just that, they were not interested in subjugating the North for the Malians, they were just there to fight Jihadists.
The Malians did not like this so they removed the French and replaced them with the Russians to take Kidal(the capital of Kidal province which is where the Kel Adagh powerbase is).
This stirred up the Kel Adagh who would re organise and also the Malians and Russians were not able to finish the job and suffered a severe set back which led to a reversal.

Last year both the Kel Adagh and JNIM inflicted even further loses on them and now this year they have launched a joint offensive against the Malians, so far they have retaken Kidal and taken numerous other towns.
But as I said, they are not natural allies so who knows how this will end.
 >>/55346/
Ah, thanks for writing all this, didn't expect.
That clears up some of the situation. For example it's better to understand why govt. forces were booted out so easily. Their power base is at the other end of the country while the tworags are at home.
The tuaregs have a secession movement or at least an autonomy movement. It was peace until now because they had an arrangement with the govt years ago.
> Then there is the north, which is very arid and can't support agriculture,
That's basically the Sahel, which spans over countries across Africa and kind of a highway too for the migratory tuaregs. They can move about between countries north and south of this region, and can fight wherever, in Algeria, Libya, or down in Mali or Chad. I assume the ISIL/al-Qaeda exerts their influence the same way. Plus those who support these various groups and use them in various conflicts.
I think it's worth viewing African events as a whole holistically, kek, beyond on local state level.
The thing that actually grinds my gears in the case of the war on Ukraine:
Those Hungarian liberals or socialists or the combination these people who are very anti-fascist, those people who are so indignant about the Nazis and our participation in WWII, and they say how big of a mistake was to attack the Soviet Union, and who deny vehemently that the Soviet Union wanted to attack Europe, are now wholeheartedly support all aggression against Russia (like harassing the shadow fleet) and happy about every pain Russians suffer (like drone strikes against facilities) and they claim that Russia wants to attack Europe... So these hypocrites are essentially agreeing with Horthy and Herr Hitler and the rest, and they just can't see this somehow. Absolutely blind.
 >>/55355/
Definitely not.
People can't comprehend that the Reich and their leaders could have rational reasons for their intentions and actions. Nazis baed mkay.
Even tho the current Europa project is the same Lebensraum stuff. Western elites want to fuel the Franco-German economy with Eastern European resources (be it human or natural resource). They don't have problems with Russia in Europe, they have problems with Russian resources in Putin and Co's hands.
And the average Hungarian and European finds nothing wrong with this. It's the matter of who says the thing. If Hitler says it then it's bad, if von der Leyen then it's good.
Iran.
"Some say" that lively traffic is going on on the Iranian-Paki border. It's two way, oil out, goods in. The goods are trapped in Paki ports because the ships were bound to Iran but US blockade keeps 'em out. And the oil is essentially a smuggle operation - tho there's some tweets claiming over 75000 trucks went through 30K liters per truck. How much is that really, I dunno.
There are pipelines too.
An half finished Iran-Paki, where the Iranians built their side, but for US pressure the Pakis didn't theirs. Their country suffer from energy shortage so they'd need it.
Another is an Iran-Turkmen-Afghan-Indian line. Only the first half is built, the Talibans say they are trying the build their part, the Indians started nothing yet as far as I know. But again, they need Paki access because geography. And Afghanistan and Pakistan has a war going on between them.
The second could be a viable solution, especially if the Chinese could connect to it, perhaps in Afghanistan. Perhaps they could build it to China and from there to India. It would be good to see an actual map where it is planned.
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 >>/55361/
Oh and trains too:
https://energynewsbeat.com/crude-oil/how-effective-is-the-iran-back-door-rail-line-to-china/
https://www.jfeed.com/news-world/iran-china-oil-rail-exports
https://fountainbridge.substack.com/p/china-iran-rail-corridor

> The rail corridor between Iran and China has been operational since around May 2025. It can shorten transit times to roughly 12–15 days compared to 30–40 days by sea, but volumes remain limited compared to tanker shipments.
There was really funny Iran war report by Wyatt off DPA couple days ago. All the sources were Fox News essentially.

He also voices interesting opinion about Iran, liek:
> they can't do anything else but attack first
I heard similar from other people too. They don't get Iranian mindset and strategy. Iran can't attack first and they always have to agree ceasefire and negotiations even if everyone knows it's a sham. They determined to show the world they are the victims of aggression and ready for peace.
 >>/55363/
The ISIS-Khorasan and small groups of Uighur jihadis might mean danger to railroad oil transports. The article isn't about this but details how ISIS tries to recruit among the Uighurs and how Chinr treats them is the backdrop.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/isis-has-its-sights-set-on-a-new-potential-ally-uyghur-jihadi-groups/
This is about al-Qaeda relation with China. And the Uighurs ofc.
Long one haven't even skimmed, just searched about a bit.
https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/the-historical-evolution-of-al-qaeda-s-positions-on-china
There is this new American telly show, CIA. First episode aired 2026 February 23.
As the story goes at one point an agent says:
if he did turn he could sell it to Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz
Everything US media does is just a psyop.


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