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arrest of... mp4
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Events are unfolding in a completely predictable course. The opposition holds demonstrations but the military and police remain loyal. Maduro is content to sit on a throne of bayonets. Lula and other moderate leftists in the continent have offered negotiations, all of which have so far been rejected by Maduro. Lula is in an uncomfortable position, trapped between losing a longtime regional ally and losing votes for his party. Suggesting negotiations allows his ally to whitewash legitimacy without the PR disaster of directly endorsing Maduro's electoral results, which is precisely what Lula's party did. He has gone so far as to publicly disavow his party's position. Lately he called the Venezuelan regime "very unpleasant" and "authoritarian", but "not a dictatorship", which neither side was pleased to hear.
Negotiations could be a clever move by Maduro. He's done it before, goading the opposition into backing down from confrontation and fooling it with empty concessions. A repeat election would be even better, it would be a second chance to demoralize voter turnout and rig the results. Lula knows this, he's giving his ally a way out. Maybe Maduro will accept under further international pressure. So far he refuses to back down even on a rhetorical level, counting on his coup-proofing measures. The National Guard, Militia and even the colectivo paramilitaries are potential counterweights to Army unrest. Cuban advisors, even a handful of them, keep a watch on suspicious officers. Even then, all of this is a risky bet. Coup-proofing is always perfectly successful until it isn't. Individual officers know popular acclaim or even CIA cash await them if they refuse to disperse demonstrations.
Hispanophone Maduro apologetics resort to cheap claims like the voting tallies already having been submitted to the Supreme Court (whose presiding judge is a card-carrying member of the ruling party) or the release of tallies not being needed at all. Anglophone apologists resort to the beaten litany of color revolution, CIA-backed, upper class oppositionists and so on.
I've watched clips from Maduro's speeches and he's nothing like that. His rhetoric has some classical far left components (fascism, imperialism, bourgeois representative democracy is a lie, we're building a new democracy of the 21st century) but it's a chaotic mix. There's room for religion (reading the Bible, accusing his enemies of Satanism, mentioning the "Venezuelan family", describing himself as in a "spiritual fight between good and evil"), generation shock (uninstalling Whatsapp, attacking tech companies), Palestine-baiting or Jew-baiting (claiming his enemies are financed by international Zionism) and other colorful influences.
A much livelier personality than his defenders. He's funny in a buffoonish, unintentional way. None of Chavéz's charisma.
Also notable are the intelligence and police services running psychological terrorism through heavily edited footage of their arrests of opposition figures. Another bullet point to Venezuela's cyberpunk status. It's not cyberpunk because of purple filters and flashing lights (though these might appear) but from authorities publicizing a crackdown like it's a funny meme. It could even be awe-inspiring if they had a proper production quality.