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Here's where it gets interesting. Kenton, Oldham, and Spencer were Massie's three weakest counties in the 2024 primary. Oldham gave Massie just 66.5%, Spencer 67.2%, Kenton 77.4%. Meanwhile Massie's strongest counties -- Mason (86.8%), Bracken (85%), Lewis (83.8%) have a combined 1,107 early votes between them.
So the early vote surge is clearly coming from Massie's soft flank. But that alone doesn't tell you who wins.
Here's why. In 2024, Massie underperformed Trump in every single county in the district. But the gap between their performances doesn't follow a clean pattern. In Oldham, Trump got 76.9% and Massie got 74.3%; a gap of just 2.6 points. In Robertson, Trump got 92.1% but Massie got only 70.6% -- a 21.5 point gap. The biggest Massie-Trump splits are actually in tiny rural counties (Robertson, Grant, Pendleton, Carroll), not in the activated suburbs.
The correlation between anti-Trump voting and anti-Massie voting at the county level is weak (r = 0.26). They're nearly independent variables. Anti-Trump Republicans and anti-Massie Republicans are not the same coalition; they overlap in the Cincinnati and Louisville suburbs but diverge everywhere else.
What this means is that I cannot cleanly attribute the 2026 turnout surge to either a pro-Trump wave or an anti-Massie wave. Kenton and Oldham are activated, but those are the counties where both Trump and Massie run weakest. Whether those 8,000 banked suburban votes break for Gallrein because Trump told them, or for Massie because suburban skeptics are his natural base, is the question the data genuinely cannot answer.
A warning sign for Gallrein: Boone has the weakest early voting turnout thus far of the large counties, and Rich Baris has Boone as the strongest district for Gallrein.
We'll know tonight.
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056763225367364072
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How to tell what phase of retirement a retired admiral on TV is in:
Posts âour democracy is under threatâ before breakfast: retirement hit harder than expected.
Tweets nonstop about âtoxic leadershipâ: feels guilty he personally carpet-bombed morale on three staffs.
Replies to random 24-year-old lieutenants: misses having subordinates legally required to pretend heâs insightful.
Says âwhole-of-society approachâ: he screen records zoom meetings to hear himself talk
Suddenly stops posting photos during a leadership summit in East Asia: marriage entering EMCON.
Retweets MSNBC clips and airport-lounge selfies: trolling for a NATO consulting gig
Moves to San Francisco to advise tech startups: still upset donât ask donât tell came too late for him
Writes 27-post geopolitics threads on LinkedIn: starting to realize he did nothing important in his career
Calls critics âdangerousâ: struggling with the fact he spent 35 years unable to handle disagreement from anyone below O-6.
Thinks drug testing is racist: moved to Bainbridge Island and is high 24/7
Says battleships are dumb: needs Brookings to hold his security clearance.
Runs for Senate: still doesnât know all his chiefs hated him.
Retweets all the woke talking head generals: secretly always hated the navy.
Says âwe need hard choicesâ: wants Congress to fund his favorite contractor.
Says we need âsoft power optionsâ: wants Congress to fund his favorite consultants
Defends Tom Nichols: had a vasectomy that went horribly wrong
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056755118599754047
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