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DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - I'm loving watching Punchbowl staffers spaz out    
Conversation
Jack Posobiec @JackPosobiec
Trump’s endorsement of Paxton over Cornyn is a massive rebuke of the DC establishment, and the Senate GOP Leadership in particular
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056840693390483880

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Baris's polls are the most detailed; that's why I used them. It's not an endorsement of his character.    
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056797790848897275

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican -  His polling methodology has been historically sound. A lot of people are speculating that his emotions are compromising him on the Massie race, but I assume professionalism first.
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Matthew Russell @m_russell187
Can we trust Baris though?
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056775701085479236

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - It's in terms of 2024 - I was testing the hypothesis that GOPe were both anti-Trump and anti-Massie, looking to explain the suburban surge. Bad explanation.   
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The Archivist @FreeArchivist
I don't understand this race at all.
I don't understand Massie's priorities and I know nothing about Gallrein.
I have no idea which outcome is better.
As for your analysis, my assumption was that anti-Trump would be pro-Massie. What's the correlation there?
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056773109181767958

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - To clarify: the anti-Trump / anti-Massie analysis are in terms of 2024 - where there wasn't nearly as much enmity. I wanted to see if anti-Trumpers tended to be anti-Massies, to test these were establishment Republicans who disliked both Trump and Massie. 
Bottom line, sorry for confusing language: you can't really tell anything from 2024 numbers.      
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056772765236256998

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - I'd need breakdowns of party registration by county + age + sex. I don't have that.
Conversation
Landline Millennial @_bettercallpaul
Are there any counties that stand out as having a much higher or much lower population of voters over 65+ yrs old?
Also, if Gallerin is relying on the Boomers-who always vote-then does the high turnout indicate increased turnout of younger age groups, who poll better for Massie?      
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056770553730736460

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Another factor to weigh in: 80% of votes in the 2024 KY primary are Election Day votes. This is a true tea-leaves take.  
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2056767147318353984

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - 🔴 19-May: KY-4 Early Voting Analysis 🔴
Today is Election Day in Kentucky's 4th District, the most expensive House primary in American history at roughly $32 million. Trump backed Ed Gallrein to unseat Thomas Massie after Massie voted against the big beautiful bill, opposed military aid to Israel, and pushed to release the Epstein files. 
Here's what the early vote data says... but, more importantly, doesn't say.
According to the data I downloaded, KY-4 Republicans have already banked 18,418 early votes across 18 full counties. (I am not including partial counties.) That is 233% of the entire 2024 Republican primary early vote. Every single county in the district has exceeded its 2024 early total. This is an extraordinary level of activation for a non-presidential midterm primary.
The volume is concentrated in three counties: Kenton (4,690 early votes, 256% of 2024), Oldham (3,249, 256%), and Boone (2,469, 179%). Those three account for 56% of the district's banked Republican vote (minus partial counties).
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