>>/182487/,  >>/182488/,  >>/182489/,  >>/182490/,  >>/182491/
• "Snapback" mechanism to restore international sanctions would have expired Oct. 18, 2025.
From 2027-2029: 
• 2,500-3,500 IR-2m or IR-4 centrifuges would have been installed at Natanz - output potentially exceeding all 5,060 permitted IR-1s;
• IR-8 infrastructure would have been installed at Natanz; rotors fitted to stockpiled IR-6 and IR-8 machines under IAEA monitoring;
• Uranium tests in cascades of up to 150 IR-6 and 84 IR-8 would have been permitted. 
By 2029: 
• No further limits on advanced centrifuge manufacture or enrichment would have applied;
• Up to 1,200 IR-6 and 1,200 IR-8 centrifuges could have been stockpiled by this date;
• Breakout time would have been reduced to weeks or less - Iran would have been a de facto nuclear threshold state. 
By 2031: 
• No cap on enrichment purity level or enriched uranium stockpile would have applied;
• Enrichment at Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant would have been permitted; new enrichment plants permitted;
• Plutonium reprocessing prohibition would have been lifted; heavy water reactors permitted; no cap on heavy water production or stockpiling;
• No limits on centrifuge types or quantities would have remained;
• Powered by a fully deployed fleet of advanced centrifuges, Iran would have faced near-zero breakout time - able to produce weapons-grade uranium within days
In fact, the JCPOA was a very specific plan to progressively allow a state sponsor of terrorism and growing threat to the U.S., Israel, and their allies to enrich uranium legally and on an industrial scale with zero breakout time!
Instead, thanks to military strikes: 
• These thresholds were never reached.
• The JCPOA was formally terminated Oct. 18, 2025.
• Iran is not enriching uranium for the first time in nearly 20 years.
• No functioning enrichment facilities, feedstock production, or accessible enriched uranium stockpile currently exist.
• Strikes have eliminated Iran's entire enrichment fuel supply chain: the Isfahan uranium conversion facility that produced UF6 feedstock has been destroyed; the Isfahan tunnel enrichment plant under construction has been struck and buried; the centrifuge manufacturing base that would have built the advanced machines has been demolished; and the enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow that would have run them have been severely damaged or rendered inaccessible.
• Without UF6 feedstock, functioning centrifuges, or operational enrichment halls, Iran cannot produce the enriched uranium fuel required for a nuclear weapon.
• The uranium metal conversion and fuel fabrication lines at Isfahan - essential for fashioning enriched material into weapon cores - have also been eliminated.
• Iran's plutonium pathway has been closed by strikes on the Arak reactor.
• UN resolutions once again prohibit enrichment and reprocessing. The near-zero breakout timeline has been foreclosed.
• Snapback restored all UN prohibitions on Iran's imports of arms and missiles. 
And most importantly, the United States and its allies are no longer bribing Tehran with sanctions relief and other incentives to directly augment its threat capacity — they instead eliminated the great majority of these threats militarily.
https://x.com/michaelgwaltz/status/2050710931131523502
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