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Iran Spectator @IranSpec - ๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง
| In a few hours, the final "strike options" briefing is presented to Trump, here is my analysis of what will happen:
๐๐จ ๐๐๐ฅ๐-๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ:
A low-impact, symbolic strike is OFF the table, the U.S will not risk looking weak, the media will see protests being crushed the next day by the IRGC-Basij if itโs not big enough + will give them an excuse to crack down harder on protesters.
The U.S. is aiming for a medium-OR-high-damage operation, with the secondary goal of limiting Iran's ability to retaliate.
๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ (๐๐๐๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ):
Paralyzing the IRGC/Basij and assassinating top generals. This aims to cripple the regimeโs internal control and spark revolution while keeping retaliation manageable.
๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ (๐๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ):
A massive decapitation strike. Destroying 60โ70% of ballistic missile capabilities, air defenses, and IRGC command hubs (Tharallah HQ) to eliminate the threat entirely.
- Contrary to popular belief, No, they wonโt need aircraft carriers, even for option B.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
- ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ:
It is a coin toss. Option A is strategic but risks U.S. lives in an Iranian retaliation, especially with no aircraft carriers; Option B is a total reset but carries the "Artesh wildcard." Explained below
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ซ๐:
If Option B is chosen, the fate of the country rests with the Artesh (Regular Army).
Will they take control and side with the people, or join the IRGC in a suicidal retaliation + mass genocide to kill the revolution?
If the Artesh choose the latter, it will be absolute chaos.
https://x.com/IranSpec/status/2011053161445015836
Jack Posobiec @JackPosobiec - Massive SCOOP by Human Events!
Quote
Human Events Daily @humaneventslive
Treasury Sec Scott Bessent Interview: Anti-ICE Group Funding Is Under Investigation
Podcast:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/human-events-daily-with-jack-posobiec/id1585243541?i=1000744884319
Rumble:
https://rumble.com/v747zxm-human-events-daily-with-jack-posobiec.html
https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/2010896123381342676
James Comer @RepJamesComer - Video: DOZENS OF WHISTLEBLOWERS are now sounding the alarm to @GOPoversight on rampant taxpayer fraud in Minnesota.
Governor Tim Walz made a deliberate effort to keep them silent.
We must expose this theft of taxpayer dollars & hold everybody accountable who let it happen. @FoxNews
https://x.com/RepJamesComer/status/2010732919296577610
James Spann @spann - TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE: This is the probability of 1" of snow or greater through January 23 (from the reliable European ensemble output, AI version).
In Alabama the chance remains zero. We might see a few flurries tomorrow night, or Friday night/Saturday morning. No impact, no accumulation.
Yet within the past week you have been flooded with forecasts of big snows with major impact across the Deep South from garbage engagement farms on social platforms. It is unfortunate that some actual meteorologists have gotten into this game.
Thereโs real harm in thisโand itโs not just โweather geek drama.โ Posting long-range deterministic snow maps (10โ20 days out) as if theyโre meaningful forecasts causes predictability, trust, and behavior problems.
Hereโs the breakdown.
*It teaches people to misunderstand how forecasting works
At 10โ16 days, deterministic detail is essentially noise.
The atmosphere is chaotic
Small upstream errors explode with time
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